I was immediately waiting for the webworm on this because I knew I could count on you and your team to sort this out. Thanks so much for your hard and fast work my friend.
Same! I was thrilled when I saw your post! I immediately ran to my husband and said “my news source came out with a statement and I can’t wait to let you know what I learn!”
Thank you so much for being so thorough and thoughtful and for being here for us!
Yesssss. Came here to say this too! All the media coverage & vomit on social media has been an exhausting mess, leave it to webworm to make it sensible & fast. 👏
I don't think it was staged. I think Trump and the Republicans have shown themselves incapable of pulling off something so complex.
I've seen a lot of talk of how this hands Trump the election, and that was my immediate thought too. But here are couple things that helped calm me down:
-There were several assassination attempts of presidential candidates in the 70s. None of them went on to win their election.
-People will point to Regan's shooting and his landslide re-election victory. But that happened in the first year of his presidency. There's a lot that happened in between those two events to explain Regan's victory.
-A normal candidate might be able to ride a wave of goodwill all the way to the White House. But Trump and the MAGA chorus are incapable of being normal. The RNC is next week, and there's a good chance it will be 10x more psychotic than it would normally be. This will hopefully be off-putting to the median voter.
So don't give up hope yet. In the short term, I'm more worried about violence from Trump supporters. My parents live in a deep red, gun toting area, and they were planning on putting a Biden sign in the yard. After the shooting, I called them and asked them not to. I'm genuinely worried about what some cult member could do in the name of "revenge".
I believe this will further solidify those already supporting Trump and potentially move a small amount of "on the fence" people his way in a goodwill gesture when they've wanted to see someone strong and defiant, but that it's going to have little impact directly. The larger impact it might have is that the Democrat party sees this even-larger immovable force in the electorate, and the only way to shake that in a different direction is with a different candidate. Which I still believe is going to happen, shortly after the legally official nomination of Trump by the Republicans commits them to not be able to change the candidate shown on the ballot. (Of course, with the Electoral College, that doesn't have quite the same forced mandate to vote for that candidate in early January that some think it does.)
Agree with you on the first point, but not sure about the second. This seems to have quashed a lot of the talk about replacing Biden, but truly anything is possible right now.
Public discussion is like a dog when it sees a squirrel, quickly shifting attention to the new thing of the moment. While the Democrat insiders might be hoping this will make all of that prior discussion go away, they're definitely still talking about it, strategizing, and gaming out different options behind the scenes. I know I would be if I was the Karl Rove/Lee Atwater/James Carville type, trying to figure out how these changes have impacts to the positive or negative for my candidate. There are also a lot of other agendas/egos that get to be involved, so I'm sure those are going to be applying their own forces to the eventual outcome(s).
This has most likely secured Trumps election as president with the footage and that iconic picture of him pumping his fist. But I don’t believe it was a conspiracy. And I think I speak for a lot of people and would like to say to Mr. Elon Musk to shut the fuck up. Being rich doesn’t make you an expert, it just makes you a rich asshole who needs to go build rockets while the grown ups report what really goes on in this world.
Dylan hit so many good points. But what is upsetting in this is that someone was almost killed and instead of just realizing that maybe, somehow, our political situation is getting out of hand we instead jump into the irrational thoughts that make this political situation such nightmare fuel. I don’t like Trump either, but fuck, he almost died, someone did die and 2 others injured because of how insane things have gotten in our country. And the best we can do is say it was a ploy and was all a stunt. I can’t even at the moment with that.
Thank you for sharing Dylan’s article. I’m going to remember this when people start promoting false accounts.
"Elon should shut the fuck up. Being rich doesn't make you an expert." So much this. After his comments about the Thai cave rescuers it cemented my opinion of him as a total disgrace.
Oh hello David! I don’t think it was staged because it’s so easy to get guns in America, we’ve been at a boiling point for ages and I’m shocked it hadn’t happened sooner. I’m still hopeful for the election, I know there’s a lot of doomers out there but 4 months is a political life time. That said I’m 24 and looking into tubal litigation, but that doesn’t mean I’ll stop volunteering for the campaign to beat Donald Trump.
It would’ve been hell of earth if someone got him. Political violence is very not punk rock.
It’s never too late to switch things up! Jacinda Ardern only became her party leader 7 weeks before New Zealand’s election in 2017! She was completely unknown to most of the general public up until that time.
"Switch things up"??? If you are talking about Pres Biden it is a FACT that the rules of election fundraising mean no-one but Joe & Kamala have access to the multi-million $$$ raised, so the only person you can "switch" to is Kamala. Also, the candidate has to be actually on the ballot in all states as the official candidate, and the Trump team could mount legal challenges that would potentially tie things up, & who knows what the current Supreme Court would rule if it got past the partisan judges Trump appointed???
I personally have no problem with Kamala, & indeed would be super excited if she because President, but I'm not convinced that the racists, bigots & misogynists would allow it, & some fence sitters would turn out to vote to vote against her
That is only the case for funds directly raised by the campaign, which is the $3,300 limit for each individual (doubled if you give for both the primary and the general). That's only a small portion of the donations. Funds which have been instead contributed to the party or Political Action Committees are completely free to spend on whatever they want (and super-PACs, by definition, can't be explicitly tied to any specific candidate). When you hear about a $500,000 per person event, only $3,300 (or $6,600) is going to the candidate, then the $41,300 to the party PAC, then $123,900 to the other PACs, then contributions to the state parties and other major candidate funds. (It's all in the fine print of the donation/sponsorship agreements.) https://www.fec.gov/updates/fec-announces-2023-2024-campaign-cycle-contribution-limits/
Plus anyone new that is selected would have an immediate sudden groundswell of support and donations behind them, and if they are already a politician then any election funds they've raised there could be used towards this, so there's a lot more flexibility in the choices than being portrayed by some. It's definitely not a "your only other choice is Harris" situation. They should make sure that whoever they select is the best person for the candidacy and job, though I know the real selecting factor is often "who do we think will be able to win and move the agenda the furthest in our direction" for all of these groups.
Honestly, if Kamala is the only other option (I hadn’t realised this was the case in US politics) then they should switch them. Even if those that didn’t want a woman of colour in charge voted against her I really think it wouldn’t be any worse than it currently is. In contrast, those that didn’t want a geriatric in charge and were on the fence might actually vote for her as an alternative?
Unfortunately it could be "worse than it currently is" - Pres Biden is the one with the proven legislative & governing record to put up against those who are indulging in thinly disguised elder-abuse by piling onto a man who is decent, hardworking, brings disparate factions together at home & abroad, while ignoring completely/under-reporting the lies & violent rhetoric of a man only 3 years younger. Someone who analysed the so called "debate" identified over 600 times Trump lied, misled, misrepresented etc. & noted that if we read what each SAID instead of being hung up on appearances, Pres Biden was coherent, on top of facts & policies, called out Trump several times etc. Kamala was a brilliant Senator, & I would back her any day of the week, but is handicapped as I said - people don't vote against those deep prejudices. Happy to be proved wrong if it comes to it though.
You really don’t have to convince me that Biden is a good guy, or that Trump is the pits….I was simply suggesting an alternative route to success for the democratic party based on what I had experienced here in NZ.
I so appreciate the breakdown. I think a lot of people forget that for a conspiracy theory to be true, a hell of a lot of secrets must be kept by/coordinated with a hell of a lot of people - next to impossible these days.
People calling this election for Trump already had better be down in the volunteering trenches with me. Doomerism gets us no where. Time to rally the anti-Trump coalition. The message stays the same, the policies stay the same. Dems have the popular policies as indicated by polls and voters. We’ve got to knuckle down, once you’ve screamed into the void come join me at votesaveAmerica.com
The opposite could easily happen. This may make the apathetic take a closer look at what a 2nd trump term could look like. A record voter turn out could bury trump. Look at what just happened in the UK and France. Everybody needs to vote.
I don’t think this was a false flag. I don’t think it was staged. I do think, politically and socially, America is in an extremely dangerous downward spiral right now and we are unwilling to learn from those who have lived similar experiences before us.
I try to be a student of history. Recalling the Reichstag Fire, we can very likely predict what the next few months bring. As more comes out about the shooter, further divide and inaccurate generalizations will follow. Surveillance will increase. Rights will be violated in the name of protection (though that’s nothing new).
Other events, such Supreme Court ruling houseless individuals are essentially committing an illegal act by being unhoused in public (mirroring the Malicious Practices Act passed by Nazis in 1933 which lead to rounding up “social outcasts” and the first concentration camps), have given us ideas on where the dots *may* connect. However, I don’t think the old playbook analogy/conspiracy theories apply. In a new election cycle, with volatile factors such as technological and media influence, an active genocide, and looming Project 2025, I think it crucial that we understand how unprecedented and unpredictable things are going to be the new norm. In your words: “chaos.”
I ran to Webworm as soon as this came out, thank you for addressing it and providing a channel for good information.
Our brains just loooooove patterns and consistency and norms. so when something happens outside of our realm of every day patterns, I see how folks reach for conspiracy theories to make their disbelief make sense to them.
But oh wow this is gonna be a rough one. Grateful for this corner of the Internet in ~times like these~.
Great summary, the thing that struck me were the claims, from 'both' sides there and here in NZ, that 'this [gun violence] is not America'. Are they that deluded?
My gut feeling is that this is real and just absolutely horrendous. I’m going to remember right now that I’m speaking to strangers on the internet and not say my first thought on this. But secondly, that image is going to be used to martyr him into presidency and that is so scary. Im not even American but the damage this man could/might do in a second term I now feel is certain is unspeakable horror to women, the LGBT community and widely the world (climate change, war?). I’m sad.
I wonder how this will affect Trump mentally. He’s not the most stable person. If someone tried to assassinate me, there would definitely be some mental health issues on my part. So does he go away (yes, please!) or does he get elected with more issues than he already has? I can’t even imagine.
People are confused by this shooter's contradictory political allegiances but I think they make sense: he had the motive of a Democrat and the tendency for homicidal violence of a Republican
Maybe he was one of so many Republicans who fear Trump is ruining the party. Or just a guy who thinks death by secret service is somehow cooler than death by cop. Or just wants to be famous. I'm sure his life will be thoroughly dissected in the next few weeks.
I had expected some sort of recorded statement or other manifesto to be published/shared to explain a political position and reasoning, and when it didn't I instead took to the "wants to be famous" perspective.
Thanks for the level headed analysis on all this. Now that picture of the shooter is out, he's just a kid, very young looking, and school mates say he was bullied every day. Maybe if there hadn't been the Trump rally, it would have been another school shooting.
I feel awful for the families of the spectator that was killed and the two injured, and for the shooter's family who will have to spend the rest of their lives trying to figure out what the hell happened as well as mourn him.
I feel very worried about the next few months in the USA and the repercussions this will have.
Thanks for all the feedback and discussion here - and as always for being civilised and awesome even when disagreeing or straying on certain points.
I love this place.
I was immediately waiting for the webworm on this because I knew I could count on you and your team to sort this out. Thanks so much for your hard and fast work my friend.
Same! I was thrilled when I saw your post! I immediately ran to my husband and said “my news source came out with a statement and I can’t wait to let you know what I learn!”
Thank you so much for being so thorough and thoughtful and for being here for us!
Yesssss. Came here to say this too! All the media coverage & vomit on social media has been an exhausting mess, leave it to webworm to make it sensible & fast. 👏
I've only recently signed up, David, but very quickly got to where Kate is coming from in this post. Thankyou.
I don't think it was staged. I think Trump and the Republicans have shown themselves incapable of pulling off something so complex.
I've seen a lot of talk of how this hands Trump the election, and that was my immediate thought too. But here are couple things that helped calm me down:
-There were several assassination attempts of presidential candidates in the 70s. None of them went on to win their election.
-People will point to Regan's shooting and his landslide re-election victory. But that happened in the first year of his presidency. There's a lot that happened in between those two events to explain Regan's victory.
-A normal candidate might be able to ride a wave of goodwill all the way to the White House. But Trump and the MAGA chorus are incapable of being normal. The RNC is next week, and there's a good chance it will be 10x more psychotic than it would normally be. This will hopefully be off-putting to the median voter.
So don't give up hope yet. In the short term, I'm more worried about violence from Trump supporters. My parents live in a deep red, gun toting area, and they were planning on putting a Biden sign in the yard. After the shooting, I called them and asked them not to. I'm genuinely worried about what some cult member could do in the name of "revenge".
I'm sorry you have to make a call like that to your parents. I get it. Things are feeling... bad out there.
Thanks. I'm very lucky to have parents who are also good, caring people. It's insane that I have to worry about people hurting them because of it.
It's beyond awful that you needed to ask them to do that.
I believe this will further solidify those already supporting Trump and potentially move a small amount of "on the fence" people his way in a goodwill gesture when they've wanted to see someone strong and defiant, but that it's going to have little impact directly. The larger impact it might have is that the Democrat party sees this even-larger immovable force in the electorate, and the only way to shake that in a different direction is with a different candidate. Which I still believe is going to happen, shortly after the legally official nomination of Trump by the Republicans commits them to not be able to change the candidate shown on the ballot. (Of course, with the Electoral College, that doesn't have quite the same forced mandate to vote for that candidate in early January that some think it does.)
Agree with you on the first point, but not sure about the second. This seems to have quashed a lot of the talk about replacing Biden, but truly anything is possible right now.
Public discussion is like a dog when it sees a squirrel, quickly shifting attention to the new thing of the moment. While the Democrat insiders might be hoping this will make all of that prior discussion go away, they're definitely still talking about it, strategizing, and gaming out different options behind the scenes. I know I would be if I was the Karl Rove/Lee Atwater/James Carville type, trying to figure out how these changes have impacts to the positive or negative for my candidate. There are also a lot of other agendas/egos that get to be involved, so I'm sure those are going to be applying their own forces to the eventual outcome(s).
I’ve already heard one thing about Hilters assassination attempt prior to him taking over Germany.
Yep. I don't think anyone knows what happens next.
This has most likely secured Trumps election as president with the footage and that iconic picture of him pumping his fist. But I don’t believe it was a conspiracy. And I think I speak for a lot of people and would like to say to Mr. Elon Musk to shut the fuck up. Being rich doesn’t make you an expert, it just makes you a rich asshole who needs to go build rockets while the grown ups report what really goes on in this world.
Dylan hit so many good points. But what is upsetting in this is that someone was almost killed and instead of just realizing that maybe, somehow, our political situation is getting out of hand we instead jump into the irrational thoughts that make this political situation such nightmare fuel. I don’t like Trump either, but fuck, he almost died, someone did die and 2 others injured because of how insane things have gotten in our country. And the best we can do is say it was a ploy and was all a stunt. I can’t even at the moment with that.
Thank you for sharing Dylan’s article. I’m going to remember this when people start promoting false accounts.
I agree. Really interesting to read a thoughtful analysis of what a conspiracy theory (which on surface level sounds easy to believe) comes down to.
"Elon should shut the fuck up. Being rich doesn't make you an expert." So much this. After his comments about the Thai cave rescuers it cemented my opinion of him as a total disgrace.
And you’re right, sometimes it’s just chaos.
Oh hello David! I don’t think it was staged because it’s so easy to get guns in America, we’ve been at a boiling point for ages and I’m shocked it hadn’t happened sooner. I’m still hopeful for the election, I know there’s a lot of doomers out there but 4 months is a political life time. That said I’m 24 and looking into tubal litigation, but that doesn’t mean I’ll stop volunteering for the campaign to beat Donald Trump.
It would’ve been hell of earth if someone got him. Political violence is very not punk rock.
It’s never too late to switch things up! Jacinda Ardern only became her party leader 7 weeks before New Zealand’s election in 2017! She was completely unknown to most of the general public up until that time.
"Switch things up"??? If you are talking about Pres Biden it is a FACT that the rules of election fundraising mean no-one but Joe & Kamala have access to the multi-million $$$ raised, so the only person you can "switch" to is Kamala. Also, the candidate has to be actually on the ballot in all states as the official candidate, and the Trump team could mount legal challenges that would potentially tie things up, & who knows what the current Supreme Court would rule if it got past the partisan judges Trump appointed???
I personally have no problem with Kamala, & indeed would be super excited if she because President, but I'm not convinced that the racists, bigots & misogynists would allow it, & some fence sitters would turn out to vote to vote against her
That is only the case for funds directly raised by the campaign, which is the $3,300 limit for each individual (doubled if you give for both the primary and the general). That's only a small portion of the donations. Funds which have been instead contributed to the party or Political Action Committees are completely free to spend on whatever they want (and super-PACs, by definition, can't be explicitly tied to any specific candidate). When you hear about a $500,000 per person event, only $3,300 (or $6,600) is going to the candidate, then the $41,300 to the party PAC, then $123,900 to the other PACs, then contributions to the state parties and other major candidate funds. (It's all in the fine print of the donation/sponsorship agreements.) https://www.fec.gov/updates/fec-announces-2023-2024-campaign-cycle-contribution-limits/
Plus anyone new that is selected would have an immediate sudden groundswell of support and donations behind them, and if they are already a politician then any election funds they've raised there could be used towards this, so there's a lot more flexibility in the choices than being portrayed by some. It's definitely not a "your only other choice is Harris" situation. They should make sure that whoever they select is the best person for the candidacy and job, though I know the real selecting factor is often "who do we think will be able to win and move the agenda the furthest in our direction" for all of these groups.
Honestly, if Kamala is the only other option (I hadn’t realised this was the case in US politics) then they should switch them. Even if those that didn’t want a woman of colour in charge voted against her I really think it wouldn’t be any worse than it currently is. In contrast, those that didn’t want a geriatric in charge and were on the fence might actually vote for her as an alternative?
Unfortunately it could be "worse than it currently is" - Pres Biden is the one with the proven legislative & governing record to put up against those who are indulging in thinly disguised elder-abuse by piling onto a man who is decent, hardworking, brings disparate factions together at home & abroad, while ignoring completely/under-reporting the lies & violent rhetoric of a man only 3 years younger. Someone who analysed the so called "debate" identified over 600 times Trump lied, misled, misrepresented etc. & noted that if we read what each SAID instead of being hung up on appearances, Pres Biden was coherent, on top of facts & policies, called out Trump several times etc. Kamala was a brilliant Senator, & I would back her any day of the week, but is handicapped as I said - people don't vote against those deep prejudices. Happy to be proved wrong if it comes to it though.
You really don’t have to convince me that Biden is a good guy, or that Trump is the pits….I was simply suggesting an alternative route to success for the democratic party based on what I had experienced here in NZ.
I so appreciate the breakdown. I think a lot of people forget that for a conspiracy theory to be true, a hell of a lot of secrets must be kept by/coordinated with a hell of a lot of people - next to impossible these days.
People calling this election for Trump already had better be down in the volunteering trenches with me. Doomerism gets us no where. Time to rally the anti-Trump coalition. The message stays the same, the policies stay the same. Dems have the popular policies as indicated by polls and voters. We’ve got to knuckle down, once you’ve screamed into the void come join me at votesaveAmerica.com
The opposite could easily happen. This may make the apathetic take a closer look at what a 2nd trump term could look like. A record voter turn out could bury trump. Look at what just happened in the UK and France. Everybody needs to vote.
I don’t think this was a false flag. I don’t think it was staged. I do think, politically and socially, America is in an extremely dangerous downward spiral right now and we are unwilling to learn from those who have lived similar experiences before us.
I try to be a student of history. Recalling the Reichstag Fire, we can very likely predict what the next few months bring. As more comes out about the shooter, further divide and inaccurate generalizations will follow. Surveillance will increase. Rights will be violated in the name of protection (though that’s nothing new).
Other events, such Supreme Court ruling houseless individuals are essentially committing an illegal act by being unhoused in public (mirroring the Malicious Practices Act passed by Nazis in 1933 which lead to rounding up “social outcasts” and the first concentration camps), have given us ideas on where the dots *may* connect. However, I don’t think the old playbook analogy/conspiracy theories apply. In a new election cycle, with volatile factors such as technological and media influence, an active genocide, and looming Project 2025, I think it crucial that we understand how unprecedented and unpredictable things are going to be the new norm. In your words: “chaos.”
I ran to Webworm as soon as this came out, thank you for addressing it and providing a channel for good information.
Our brains just loooooove patterns and consistency and norms. so when something happens outside of our realm of every day patterns, I see how folks reach for conspiracy theories to make their disbelief make sense to them.
But oh wow this is gonna be a rough one. Grateful for this corner of the Internet in ~times like these~.
Great summary, the thing that struck me were the claims, from 'both' sides there and here in NZ, that 'this [gun violence] is not America'. Are they that deluded?
This is such sensible commentary. Thanks Dylan and David.
There is no denying how ick this all feels, but that doesn't mean sense and logic shouldn't prevail.
Fuck what a mess.
My gut feeling is that this is real and just absolutely horrendous. I’m going to remember right now that I’m speaking to strangers on the internet and not say my first thought on this. But secondly, that image is going to be used to martyr him into presidency and that is so scary. Im not even American but the damage this man could/might do in a second term I now feel is certain is unspeakable horror to women, the LGBT community and widely the world (climate change, war?). I’m sad.
I wonder how this will affect Trump mentally. He’s not the most stable person. If someone tried to assassinate me, there would definitely be some mental health issues on my part. So does he go away (yes, please!) or does he get elected with more issues than he already has? I can’t even imagine.
Consider it a compliment that you don't think like him. He will convince himself that surviving this shooting is a measure of his greatness.
That’s such an interesting point. And also a scary one considering the latter is most likely. Arg!
Right? I think I’d nope right out of there.
Getting shot at and it only JUST missing your head is going to rock anyone pretty hard...
Yeah, this quote has me kinda worried about the direction he's going to start heading in mentally:
“I’m not supposed to be here, I’m supposed to be dead. By luck or by God, many people are saying it’s by God I’m still here.”
I really appreciate you talking about this and with such a great break down when it comes the critical thinking aspect.
People are confused by this shooter's contradictory political allegiances but I think they make sense: he had the motive of a Democrat and the tendency for homicidal violence of a Republican
Maybe he was one of so many Republicans who fear Trump is ruining the party. Or just a guy who thinks death by secret service is somehow cooler than death by cop. Or just wants to be famous. I'm sure his life will be thoroughly dissected in the next few weeks.
I had expected some sort of recorded statement or other manifesto to be published/shared to explain a political position and reasoning, and when it didn't I instead took to the "wants to be famous" perspective.
Thanks for the level headed analysis on all this. Now that picture of the shooter is out, he's just a kid, very young looking, and school mates say he was bullied every day. Maybe if there hadn't been the Trump rally, it would have been another school shooting.
I feel awful for the families of the spectator that was killed and the two injured, and for the shooter's family who will have to spend the rest of their lives trying to figure out what the hell happened as well as mourn him.
I feel very worried about the next few months in the USA and the repercussions this will have.