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Josh Drummond's avatar

There's a clip somewhere of former Labour leader David Cunliffe appearing on an one of those ghastly election specials talking about why politicians of the left target the centre, and it's based on the most Machiavellian yet utterly hapless maths: the theory is that by targeting a swing voter you might win *two* votes, one *for* your party and one *from* the opposition. "Two votes! That's much better than one!" their minds go, ignoring that for every vote won in that weasel way you've just made ten or so of your core supporters give up on you in disgust and turned off dozens more who might have voted for an actual human but would rather hammer nails into their eyes than watch another minute of yet another optics-pilled on-message debate boondoggle.

And I'll advance a corollary to your theory, Hayden: I reckon a big part of the reason pollies act this way isn't just to access two-for-the-price-of-one votes but because political media rate them (sometimes literally, Cf. Audrey Young) in their effectiveness at optics over any other quality. The problem is twofold: it encourages principled candidates to abandon whatever made them likeable for the agonised mess that you've described, and when a candidate eschews optics completely, like Trump, the press takes his hate-filled sundowning and translates it into their favoured political patois, doing their best to create the impression of a level playing field when at least one of the guys may as well be on Mars.

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Neil's avatar

Absolutely! So Chippy makes a big play for the centre by ruling out taxing the wealthy and promptly loses seats to the Greens.

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Robin Capper's avatar

Add to that daft harbour crossing proposals (just take a lane), complication of no GST on whatever basic food is, not just putting surface light rail down Dominion Rd, the wealth/CGT thing was the last straw

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Hayden's avatar

Pin dis @davidfarrier

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Moira Bryce's avatar

Agreed sums up the whole fucking thing.

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oga's avatar

Except . . . Labour is not left and has not been for a long time. It's to the left of National, that's all.

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Josh Drummond's avatar

That's kind of the point? If they're always playing to the centre, they can't be a party of the left, and stand no chance of leading on "leftist" projects like not letting the planet be devoured by climate change

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oga's avatar

Yeah, but let me rephrase that. If they're always playing to the centre, they can't be a party of the right, and stand no chance of leading on "centrist" projects like not letting the planet be devoured by climate change.

Labour is a right-wing party as long as it allows the status quo to stand. Working with the Greens brings them more to the centre, but they cannot be a left-wing party when they continue to support the housing bubble, deny capital gains, and only give lip service to the health sector.

I guess you can tell it annoys me to see people saying "Labour are left."

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Molly's avatar

This is far too narrow thinking. Yes British Labour have obviously been taken over by small right-wing cabal, but here in NZ it is different. I'm a person dislikes incrementalist centrism as much as the next person, but this is a systemic problem. The problem is politicians cannot move the Overton window by themselves, and all the media are currently good for is red-team, blue-team ball sports. Polls routinely show, the world over, that, on specific policies people are significantly more progressive than the parties they elect. We really, really need to improve our civics education. Ireland's experimentation with Citizens' Assemblies have been incredible in moving what has seemed to be completely entrenched positions.

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Joe G.'s avatar

Racism also plays a big part.

Harris cast the tie-breaking vote that saved the Teamsters Union pension, and she still didn't get their endorsement. And she'll certainly lose the white working-class vote to Trump, despite him being loudly anti-labor.

I'm not sure there's any other way to explain it.

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Vague Craig's avatar

Absolutely. Precisely what happened with this centrist voter* in our last election. Hoping Chippy would counter Jacinda's folk-arse group fed "No CGT on my watch" pledge, he left me nowhere to go morally but further left when he parrotted her. No regerts here, but disappointed that a collective lack of memory and wisdom in NZ did not gift us a lefty coalition and instead allowed the Winston First party to hoist upon us the three-headed taniwha we are currently cursed with.

Points to note... Any accusation from a politicion on the Right is almost always a confession. Politicians on the Left are hypocrisy-blind.

* I have voted for (the policies of) Labour, National, Greens, and Even NZ First once (back in the noughties when it helped get my late mum one of the first batch of Gold Cards).

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Adam Reaves's avatar

Living in North Carolina and seeing my former home in the mountains completely destroyed- I live in Charlotte now, but moved not long ago from the town of Lake Lure which looks like a bomb hit it-, the anger inside me boiled when Trump used the hurricane as political leverage saying that Biden has been quiet and won’t help. Instead of anyone on his side calling foul play, they have all flooded the comment sections of videos of the towns with his bullshit lies. Even the Tiger King in all of his prison garb splendor echoed Trumps remarks and said the democrats have done nothing to help. - saying money from FEMA went to the Ukraine and all of that stuff. -

How do people still believe all of this that these politicians say? It’s not just Trump who lies. I just don’t get it. I’m over politics. Why can’t we just respect and value a human life without wanting to crush it with hate and rancor?

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Neil's avatar

Roy Cohn (variously described as a "snake," a "scoundrel," and "a new strain of son of a bitch") gave the following advice to Trump decades ago: lie, distract, never admit fault and never give in.

Sadly for people in your situation, he is following this playbook all too faithfully.

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Marshall's avatar

As one quite familiar with that area of NC I'm a bit surprised with what we're seeing. A few decades ago most of those living in the Appalachians would have been quite self-sufficient. Poor, lower income and potentially lower formal education, but smart in the ways of being self-sufficient and independent, solving problems with what they had available. While it's been a massive blow and immense destruction, there would still be a "okay, that happened, now let's go take care of everyone and everything". There's still a good bit of that around (and I'm very thankful to see it in action), but a lot less than I would have expected. I think it's come from an institutional complacency and entitlement nature in the American (for those who don't like that word choice, please give me another one to use) psyche, and expectation that their superior socioeconomic position in the world is automatically guaranteed by citizenship, and that "someone else" should take care of any of these problems for them. The combination of falling educational standing and increased worldwide competition from lowering of hurdles to international trade means that we now have to compete on a larger stage, and the lack of educational achievement means the lowered barriers to worldwide entry to the markets diminish the average value of those who happen to be US citizens. That then causes a lowering of economic standing from expectations and entitled feelings, driving anger and frustration which then drives the finger-in-the-air politicians to pander towards those emotional responses in order to drum up votes. I feel like the complacency and entitlement that have their hold on sufficient numbers, combined with those individuals' inability to actually deliver sufficient value to justify that economic outcome, causes them to be left behind and angry in the process and look for others to lash out and blame rather than looking at themselves and working to be better. Because it's easier to go blame someone else than to actually take responsibility and do something about it. I feel like that's what a number of politicians are taking advantage of in their positioning (intentionally or because they feel the same way), and not just in the US.

I know that's a bit of an off-topic rant, but I've just been frustrated with the loudmouth types who aren't actually doing anything positive and useful, and instead are just complaining that these "other" people aren't doing the right thing or solving their own problems for them with no effort of their own. I'm all for jumping in and helping out in these situations (and have been on both sides of them in the past) and we're all going to get better results when we all pitch in and help rather than just complaining that someone else hasn't already gotten it all fixed and resolved for us. Unfortunately, the people who are really pitching in and doing are often the quiet ones so you hear the loudmouth complainers and can overlook the hard working quiet individuals.

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Neil's avatar

Totally agree. In NZ people won't remember the fact that the govt belatedly stumped up for more than they originally promised on cancer drugs, they'll remember the howls of rage at the broken promise which catalysed the eventual funding. Similarly, the govt could build a gold-plated hospital in Dunedin now, but the simmering rage won't allow South Islanders to forget their feelings of betrayal. (Fun aside: Placard seen at the Dunedin march - "National - putting the 'n' into cuts")

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Irene Fluit's avatar

I'd love a gold plated hospital for the deserving people of Dunedin & surrounding provinces!!

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Neil's avatar

Hell hath no fury like an electorate scorned!

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Hayden's avatar

Things I didn't put in here so as not to bore the living crap out of people but will blurt out for those reading the comments: I feel like the idea of the "centre" is a bit of a myth, at least in the way it's perceived. The idea is that it's a moderate point between the high ideals of the left and right. In reality a swing voter is just as likely to be an abortion abolitionist who supports Black Lives Matter as they are to be a sage centrist.

Also, this isn't a hard and fast rule. Obviously do-nothing candidates can win, especially when times are good, or when their opponents are clearly insane. But the last few years of economic downturn have truly shown the limits of their political philosophy, and increasingly we're seeing evidence that ceding ground to the other side doesn't make people more likely to vote for you.

Also another example of the thesis here: Jeremy Corbyn won more votes in 2019 than Keir Starmer did during the most open layup of an election in living memory while getting actively ratfucked by his own party and painted as both a fascist and a communist by that hell island's large chorus of evil tabloids. He wasn't even a perfect candidate, he just had some kind of believabiity and a platform people could get behind.

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Joe G.'s avatar

I think alot of people hold contradictory political opinions. I was reading about an undecided voters focus groups, and there was a woman whose most important issue was abortion access. She was leaning towards Trump.

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Hayden's avatar

Yes the reality of swing voters is totally out of step with the political perception of them. Every time a TV network actually has a swing voter on they are a complete mess of bizarre personality traits and contradictory beliefs. People are weird!

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Kylee Reads Things's avatar

I just don't know what us rational, thinking types are supposed to do. It's all I can not to drown in fucking despair everytime I turn on 'the news' or doomscroll. It's been A YEAR OF KILLING INNOCENT BABIES, CHILDREN, WOMEN, MEN and a handful of assholes. On top of that, the planet is trying to delouse us from the surface with water and fire and shakes.

Watching Kamala rise to the top like a creamsicle turd has been wounding but what other options do regular Americans have to vote for? Sure Green Jill would be a great leader of the 'free' world but look what happens when the 'left' split the vote (Looking At You Aotearoa...).

Jacinda SQUANDERED her landslide election victory by listening to strategists, or maybe just her inner middle-class white lady. Labour have been a disappointment since 1984. I want some actual change and I don't know where to find it.

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Joma's avatar

Labours landslide victory in 2020 should have given them the green light to introduce a fairer tax system - when Jacinda came out & said that she wouldn't introduce a CGT under her watch that was totally gutting -alot of Labour supporters went over to the Greens

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Dean Caldwell's avatar

This headline alone is worth more than Trump.

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David Farrier's avatar

It took me about 15 minutes to figure out a decent headline, and subheading. Not convinced I got there, but thanks for the kind words!

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Nadene's avatar

I'd like to second this - as a former (not great) headline writer, it's the kind of thing I wish I could come up with at all, let alone in 15 minutes.

Normally I save your newsletters so I can savour them but the subject line was so good, boom, read it as soon as I saw it.

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Dean Caldwell's avatar

This is absolutely a 'got there' headline and frankly we'd expect nothing less 🤣

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Jen B.'s avatar

A very good (and frightening) piece from Hayden. Yes, I do believe that politicians say and do whatever they want to get elected into positions of power (ethically or not).

But the cold and harsh reality remains: the US must choose between two candidates, and one of them wants to take away the basic human rights of millions of American citizens if he’s elected again. I’m thinking specifically of my 16-year old niece, and her right to choose.

I’m trying to remain hopeful because if I succumb to the “both sides are bad” narrative, I will fall into a deeper depression. I’m fighting like hell to make sure that doesn’t happen.

Thank you, David, for providing a safe place for us works to talk about our feelings, instead of pretending they don’t exist.

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Jason T's avatar

I abhor the false “both sides are bad” narrative that so many hold. Neither side may be great (I think one pretty much is), but like you said, it really is down to personal freedom and empathy for others versus proto-fascism. It’s so clear to me, and it boggles my mind that so many people don’t realize this or care.

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Jen B.'s avatar

*worms

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Annie's avatar

The ultimate delusion is that homo is sapient.

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rainbow brute's avatar

Yes Hayden! This whole article is so bang on. The gut punch of disappointment with Jacinda's incrementalism still feels fresh.

And yes to the vibes! Chippy as his Hutt boy self! Jacinda making ridiculous cakes! Whatsisname with the yaks! Turns out we want politicians to be real people, to stand for something and be honest and real and a bit rough round the edges.

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Joe G.'s avatar

The nerves have been getting to me this past week. I even get nervous thinking about how nervous I’ll be on Election Day. Maybe I’ll work from home, so at least I don’t have the added stress of pretending to be normal.

What’s especially crazy to me are the people who hear everything Trump says, have seen how he governs for four years, and still give him the benefit of the doubt. I think the mainstream political press (especially the more centrist outlets like the NYT and CNN) is doing a lot of the same work as those political consultants . They’re taking his deranged ramblings and refashioning them into ‘proposals’ and ‘plans’ and ‘messages’. You don’t have to sand off your edges if there’s a media ecosystem willing to do it for you.

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Jason T's avatar

I’ve noticed this a lot more in the last year or two, also. His first time around, every outlet covered him for pure entertainment. This time, they’re normalizing his insanity and it really is harmful.

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Elliecut's avatar

I’m glad you brought up Jeremy Corbyn, Hayden. He is someone who’s stuck to their values and refused to be “spun” into a more centrist version of himself. When he was leader of the Labour Party in the UK none of the political journos seemed to be able to figure out his appeal, especially to young people. But really it was just his authenticity; he never changed the way he spoke or acted, his voting record (anti-apartheid among other things) aligned with their values, and he was seemingly outside of the Westminster machine that alienates so many people.

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Peter's avatar

SO TRUE, Hayden:

politicians believe voters are making judgements based on logic, or even a coherent set of beliefs, when in reality many are making decisions almost entirely based on vibes.

So true. And yet that works both ways right now in AoteroaNZ. Luxon and his CoC have been pidsing off the majority all this time by ignoring the advice of experts and going with their own VIBES.

* ferries - too expensive. Ooops. Now what?

* 6000 public servants sacked to save the economy - ooops. No one in Wellington CBD? "Everybody back to the office!"

* Dunedin hospital- nah! Too expensive

* former lobbists now in power - Nicola McGee (aka Machinegun Magee Credit: a #BHN viewer)

* etc, etc, etc...

May they come to a crushing end in a snap election before the term is out. And sweet Jesus - may the left parties sort their shit out asap!

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Frater's avatar

I chortled so loudly at the Simpson comparison I snorted. That will be living rent free in my mind for a long time. THANK YOU AGAIN DAVID!

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Vic A's avatar

This is spot on Hayden! I watched that debate thinking something was fundamentally off with Walz. Your theory makes sense of all of that.

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Cindy's avatar

Thanks Hayden - I'll never be a politician because although I can "behave" for short periods to fit in with whatever situation, I can't keep pretending to be someone else for long 🤭 The BENEFIT of being neuro-diverse IMHO 👍 I would rather people were upfront & tell the truth & have been that way since I could try to understand the world of people. My theory is if EVERYONE was honest & straightforward from the start, it would be the "norm" so people wouldn't get offended or misled - there would be far less crime & much easier to identify people you want to be around - this was the utopia I imagined growing up & realising the lengths people went to to "nice-wash" their words and/or persona 🤷

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Vivian's avatar

This is SPOT ON. Also interestingly reminds me of the horrifying Mr. McMahon documentary, where Vince points out that it doesn’t matter if the audience loves or hates them, he wants to elicit emotion to drive engagement, which is what unfortunately what has been happening with voters

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